Today’s is Nevada’s turn in the caucus spotlight. It’s three in the afternoon, and I can’t take it any more. I’ve watched Fox and CNN for the past hour, and most of what I’m hearing falls into two categories. First, the networks have already declared the winner in the Republican caucuses; second, the commentators are droning on and on about the entrance polls and the exit polls they conducted.
Wait a minute. Wasn’t McCain’s winning in New Hampshire a surprise to almost everyone? And weren’t those darn polls wrong?
I think it’s grossly inappropriate for the networks to declare a winner before most of the ballots are counted. I understand the laws of probability say that a good enough sampling of a population can represent the whole of that population. But come on! This isn’t statistics; it’s politics. In addition, declaring winners before all votes are cast and tallied can influence the outcome.
As for those polls, I got the feeling the networks were trying to justify why they bother with them. Something about how important they are in determining who voted for whom. Well here is my opinion on why they bother. They kill time. When they’re right, it makes the network look credible. This is not the same is actually being credible, however. Somewhere in the delivery of “news” they became part of the process. But let’s not be overwhelmed by their importance whether they’re accurate or inaccurate. Finally, there seems to be an intense desire for every network to be the first to call a winner.
It’s only January 19, and there are 290 days of this to go. I told myself I would be an informed voter this time around, but what I think I’m ending up being is a curmudgeon.
Leave a Reply